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Might interest you Suavek, re China, EU and US.

LÜKEX 18, a German Gas Supply Shortage Exercise Held in (drum roll) 2018

Meanwhile, gas storage levels have fallen below 10% in Bavaria, the state's largest facility 'contains only about 20%…and no countermeasures have yet been taken', the Stuttgarter Zeitung reports

https://fackel.substack.com/p/lukex-18-a-german-gas-supply-shortage

I submit to you, dear readers, that the US-Israeli posture in the Persian Gulf may be to break Germany (and thus the EU) for two main reasons:

there’s simply no way airstrikes (conventional ones, if this turns nuclear it’s game over for everybody, I suppose) and Mossad-spearheaded ground operations in Tehran will bring Iran to heel

it will, however, very likely trigger the closure of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran, which will throw a gigantic monkey wrench into the world economy, which will suffer the mother of all strokes—and, as a (for-the-US-nice-benefit), and thus also putting a gigantic squeeze on China’s energy supply other than Russia

So, I do hope I’m wrong about this, but there may be a strange alignment of interests here that renders an escalation vs. Iran more likely:

it will annihilate whatever is left of European manufacturing specifically targeting Germany for the above-related reasons

it will invite massive Iranian retaliation vs. US ground and naval assets in the Middle East

the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while driving up oil and gas prices to potentially insane levels (and thus killing the economy) will massively enrich the last supplier to China (Russia), hence I suppose if Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin cut a deal, that might be the carrot

and China will be squeezed doubly so, once by a sudden cut-off from sea-borne energy and related maritime exchange (think the Taiwan Strait and, more importantly here, the Straits of Malacca), with the second aspect being its utter dependence on—Russian hydrocarbons, which China would have to acquire at any price

Now, you may call me out as this all being totally far-fetched and insane, but I doubt that you could consider it totally outside the realm of the plausible (and hence I posit it is: possible).

Most European won’t really care all that much at this point, though, for they will be busy trying to stay warm while the lights have gone out.

Kaylene Emery's avatar

Blessings and appreciation from Sydney Australia.

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